An Ecomomic Forecast :: essays papers

An Ecomomic Forecast Evaluating the bull trade today, it is almost impossible to pick up a financial journal without seeing in attestigence information on the bull commercialise that some consider to be overvalued. Overvalued or fairly valued, only the future will show the truth. Either way, this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns, than any other market in history. (Reference Appendix 1a) Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historical highs and then receded keystone to previous levels, leaving investors who are used to consistent and record context of use gains month after month, baffled. Both the Dow Jones and the S & P 500 indices ingest seen modest and even flat performances over the past three months. (Reference 1b) A recent article that was published on the front page of the jetty Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat due to the fact that investors were have-to doe with of the possible on set of inflation. If these concerns are warranted and inflation is thence expected, the shit market may very well be over. This after tout ensemble makes sense, inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past, and the onset of inflation at a time could very well do the same. While the article introduced some possibilities, it utter nothing of the likelihood, the causes of, the Fed.s reactions to, and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future. This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances touch inflation. It is my speculation that the Bull market may eventually correct itself in the future, but not in the short term due to ready inflation. That is, that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns, but tangible imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future. In order to begin to understand the nature of market trends and forces, one must first consider the current state of the U.S. sparing relative to its business rung. Certain aggregates can be measured that tell us a great deal about this. These aggregates have a strong history of leading, coinciding, or lagging the relative business cycle with a high amount of regular correlation. Appendix 2a contains illustrations, which show graphically the trends of the leading, lagging, and coincident indicators over the past few years. These graphs are composites of each group, and upon inquiry it is clear that all the indicators are rising.